Research Article: Cost-effectiveness of risk stratified medication management for reducing premature cardiovascular mortality in Kenya

Date Published: June 25, 2019

Publisher: Public Library of Science

Author(s): Sujha Subramanian, Rainer Hilscher, Robai Gakunga, Breda Munoz, Elijah Ogola, Simiao Chen.


Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major contributor to the burden from non-communicable diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa and hypertension is the leading risk factor for CVD. The objective of this modeling study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of a risk stratified approach to medication management in Kenya in order to achieve adequate blood pressure control to reduce CVD events.

We developed a microsimulation model to evaluate CVD risk over the lifetime of a cohort of individuals. Risk groups were assigned utilizing modified Framingham study distributions based on individual level risk factors from the Kenya STEPwise survey which collected details on blood pressure, blood glucose, tobacco and alcohol use and cholesterol levels. We stratified individuals into 4 risk groups: very low, low, moderate and high risk. Mortality could occur due to acute CVD events, subsequent future events (for individual who survive the initial event) and other causes. We present cost and DALYs gained due to medication management for men and women 25 to 69 years.

Treating high risk individuals only was generally more cost-effective that treating high and moderate risk individuals. At the anticipated base levels of effectiveness, medication management was only cost-effective under the low cost scenario. The incremental cost per DALY gained with low cost ranged from $1,505 to $3,608, which is well under $4,785 (3 times GPD per capita) threshold for Kenya. Under the low cost scenario, even lower levels of effectiveness of medication management are likely to be cost-effective for high-risk men and women.

In Kenya, our results indicate that the risk stratified approach to treating hypertension may be cost-effective especially for men and women at a high risk for CVD events, but these results are highly sensitive to the cost of medications. Medication management would require significant financial investment and therefore other interventions, including lifestyle changes, should be evaluated especially for those with elevated blood pressure and overall 10-year risk that is less than 20%.

Partial Text

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of mortality worldwide and were responsible for more than 17 million deaths in 2015. [1] Of these deaths, 7.4 million people died of coronary heart disease and 6.7 million from strokes. [1] CVDs account for over a third of the premature deaths globally. [2] More than three quarters of the CVD deaths occur in low- and middle- income countries and this poses a substantial burden in terms of premature mortality in this setting. Hypertension, or high blood pressure, is the largest contributor worldwide to CVD events but other risk factors such as tobacco use, harmful use of alcohol, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia also increase the risk of CVD events and related mortality. [2,3]

We present DALYs, cost and incremental cost per DALY gained to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of medication management for hypertension. Table 4 shows the cost-effectiveness of hypertension medication use compared to no medications using an estimated medication management cost of $378 per year. We present two intervention scenarios: (1) 50% of those classified as moderate or high risk receive medications, and (2) 50% of those classified as high risk receive medications. We show three different levels of effectiveness based on projected reductions in CHD and stroke events. For the medium level of effectiveness, the incremental cost per DALY gained ranged from $13,336 to $22,876, which are all above the $4,785 threshold. At high and low effectiveness, medication management for hypertension at this cost level is also not cost effective. See supplementary materials for assessment of stochastic uncertainly (Figures A and B in S1 File) and tornado diagram with one-way sensitivity analysis (Figures C and D in S1 File).

We developed a microsimulation model to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of the use of medication management to reduce the high levels of blood pressure among men and women in Kenya. Hypertension medication management for individuals at moderate and high risk of CVD events could be cost-effective but it will depend on both the level of effectiveness that can be achieved in the real-world setting as well as the cost of the hypertension medications. If an average reduction of at least 5mmHG of SBP or 2.5mmHG DBP can be achieved, representing the best-case scenario of a 11% reduction in CHD events and 20% reduction in stroke events, then an annual medication management cost of about $80 per person or lower will be cost-effectiveness. As expected, treating only those at a high risk will be more cost-effective than targeting both moderate and high risk individuals. Treating men at high risk remains cost-effective even when we considered very low level of effectiveness. Given the high prevalence of hypertension in Kenya, which affects almost a quarter of the adult population, a substantial investment will be required even at a low annual medication cost.




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