Date Published: January 17, 2017
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Author(s): Birgit Nikolay, Henrik Salje, Katharine Sturm-Ramirez, Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner, Nusrat Homaira, Makhdum Ahmed, A. Danielle Iuliano, Repon C. Paul, Mahmudur Rahman, M. Jahangir Hossain, Stephen P. Luby, Simon Cauchemez, Emily S. Gurley, Marc Lipsitch
Abstract: BackgroundThe International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country’s ability to meet these requirements.Methods and FindingsWe propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals.We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%–33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%–21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented.Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and surveillance resources.ConclusionWe present a new approach to evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance, making it possible to predict its ability to detect emerging threats.
Partial Text: A well-functioning disease surveillance system is crucial for the identification and control of outbreaks, and hence the prevention of national and global health emergencies . The World Health Organization (WHO) highlighted the value of national surveillance systems in the International Health Regulations (2005), an agreement among all member states to develop and maintain sufficient capacity for the detection, reporting, and control of public health threats of international concern . Infectious disease surveillance should enable (i) the timely detection of outbreaks, (ii) the quantification of health problems, (iii) the identification of subpopulations at risk, and (iv) the assessment of temporal trends including the impact of control strategies [3,4].
The studied communities were located within 95 km (severe neurological infectious disease) and 62 km (fatal respiratory infectious disease) of a surveillance hospital. In these communities, 76 of 426 severe neurological disease cases (18%, 95% CI 14%–22%) and 234 of 1,630 fatal respiratory disease cases (14%, 95% CI 13%–16%) attended a surveillance hospital. Adjusting for distance, the case detection probability was nearly twice as high among severe neurological disease cases than among fatal respiratory disease cases (risk ratio 1.8, 95% CI 1.4–2.3; p < 0.001). At 10 km distance, an estimated 26% (95% CI 18%–33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%–21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases were detected by the hospital-based surveillance. The detection probability decreased with distance from the surveillance hospital, and the decline was faster for fatal respiratory disease than for severe neurological disease. A 10 km distance increase resulted in a 12% (95% CI 4%–19%; p = 0.003) relative reduction in case detection probability for severe neurological disease but a 36% (95% CI 29%–43%; p < 0.001) relative reduction for fatal respiratory disease (Fig 2C). Including more complex functional forms of distance in the log-binomial regression models did not improve model fit based on AIC (Table A and Figs. B and C in S1 Text). We described an analytic approach for evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance systems and applied it to surveillance for severe neurological diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We quantified the proportion of cases detected and the probability that the surveillance system would detect different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital. Finally, we characterized biases in surveillance statistics and identified potential improvements to the surveillance platform. Source: http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002218