Date Published: March 14, 2014
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Author(s): Gulrez Shah Azhar, Dileep Mavalankar, Amruta Nori-Sarma, Ajit Rajiva, Priya Dutta, Anjali Jaiswal, Perry Sheffield, Kim Knowlton, Jeremy J. Hess, Suminori Akiba.
In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality.
We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations.
The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001), May (r = 0.77, p<0.001), and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05). During a period of more intense heat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03–2.21] applying reference periods (May 12–18, 2010) from various years. The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June.
Weather extremes can have significant public health impacts , , . The global frequency of extreme weather events, including extreme precipitation, drought and resulting crop failure, tropical cyclones, and flooding has been increasing in recent years, consistent with anthropogenic climate change , . These trends, which exhibit significant regional variability, are expected to continue in future as climate change becomes more pronounced . A national assessment conducted by the Indian government on climate change projects increasing temperatures for India through the 21st century, including increasing extreme heat events .
To explore the relationship between the 2010 heat wave and mortality in Ahmedabad, we conducted an ecological analysis to evaluate potential relationships between daily all-cause mortality and maximum daily temperatures. We chose the May 2010 study period because of Ahmedabad’s unprecedented heat wave, with maximum daily temperatures peaking at 46.8°C, a record high. The study was reviewed and approved by the Emory University Institutional Review Board and the Ethics committee at the Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar.
The average daily mortality during the extreme heat wave period (as shown in Table 1) was estimated at 143.9 ±48.13, significantly higher than the average of 100.6 ±10.34 for the reference period (p<0.001 for the difference). This yields an estimated excess mortality in May 2010 of 1,344 deaths from May 1–31, 2010 an increase of 43.1% above the reference period. Other analytical approaches yielded similar results: comparison of daily counts for the extreme heat wave period compared with daily averages from the reference period yielded an excess of 1,353.5 deaths (a 42.88% increase), while a comparison using the 7-day moving average method yielded 1,334.9 deaths (a 42.81% increase). All results are consistent and suggest slightly over 43% excess deaths during May 2010. Figure 1 illustrates the daily mortality counts in May 2010 heat wave, versus corresponding days in 2009 and 2011. Although similar heat-mortality studies have been conducted in several European, American and Chinese cities, this is the first time that this relationship has been documented for any city in India. The findings are consistent with prior work that shows heat wave periods associated with overall excess all-cause mortality. Using a smoothed 7-day average calculation as well as a rough average estimate to calculate baseline measures, we estimate that the mortalities occurring during the May 2010 heat wave represent a 43% increase in mortality when compared with the same time period of other years in Ahmedabad. This amounts to an additional 1,350 deaths in the city during the heat wave period. In May 2010, the city of Ahmedabad in the state of Gujarat, India, experienced a heat wave with record-breaking maximum temperatures. During this heat wave an estimated excess 1,344 deaths occurred relative to a combined May 2009 and May 2011 reference period. This finding is consistent across several methods used for gauging the extra deaths. The May 2010 heat wave period represent a 43% increase in mortality when compared with the same time period of 2009 and 2011. The RR of an “extreme heat period” from 19–25 May was 1.76 (95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001). Correlation coefficients between monthly maximum temperatures and monthly mortality show a significant relationship for the months of April (r = 0.701, p<0.001), May (r = 0.775, p<0.001). This paper aims to draw attention to extreme heat as a relatively under-appreciated public health risk in India, and provide some insight into the temperatures at which this risk appears to be marked on a population level. Given the trends associated with climate change, dangerous periods of extreme heat are likely to occur more frequently, suggesting the need for measures to reduce population vulnerability currently and in future. Heat wave-related mortality merits further analysis in order to reduce harmful health effects among India's most vulnerable and to help India adapt to the effects of climate change by increasing resilience to extreme heat. Source: http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091831