Date Published: February 2, 2011
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Author(s): Audrey Jaeger, Yves Cherel, Simon Thrush. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016484
Abstract: A temperature-defined regime shift occurred in the 1970s in the southern Indian Ocean, with simultaneous severe decreases in many predator populations. We tested a possible biological link between the regime shift and predator declines by measuring historic and contemporary feather isotopic signatures of seven penguin species with contrasted foraging strategies and inhabiting a large latitudinal range. We first showed that contemporary penguin isotopic variations and chlorophyll a concentration were positively correlated, suggesting the usefulness of predator δ13C values to track temporal changes in the ecosystem carrying capacity and its associated coupling to consumers. Having controlled for the Suess effect and for increase CO2 in seawater, δ13C values of Antarctic penguins and of king penguins did not change over time, while δ13C of other subantarctic and subtropical species were lower in the 1970s. The data therefore suggest a decrease in ecosystem carrying capacity of the southern Indian Ocean during the temperature regime-shift in subtropical and subantarctic waters but not in the vicinity of the Polar Front and in southward high-Antarctic waters. The resulting lower secondary productivity could be the main driving force explaining the decline of subtropical and subantarctic (but not Antarctic) penguins that occurred in the 1970s. Feather δ15N values did not show a consistent temporal trend among species, suggesting no major change in penguins’ diet. This study highlights the usefulness of developing long-term tissue sampling and data bases on isotopic signature of key marine organisms to track potential changes in their isotopic niches and in the carrying capacity of the environment.
Partial Text: The warming of Earth’s climate since the 1970s has been at a rate greater that at any other time in the last thousand years, producing sharp biological and ecological consequences . Biodiversity is currently being lost at unprecedented rates due to human activities and climate change, with ∼25% of mammals and ∼12% of birds being globally threatened . Sphenisciformes and Procellariiformes are among the world’s most endangered orders of birds , with many penguin, petrel and albatross populations declining in the Southern Ocean over the last decades , , . Concurrent temporal variations of different southern seabird populations with contrasted foraging ecology (diving and flying predators) and living at different localities (from subtropical to Antarctic waters) suggest common environmental driving causes. These population variations coincided with an atmospheric temperature-defined regime shift in the 1970s in the southern Indian Ocean , , probably in response to a change in meridional atmospheric circulation . The underlying causes of the population changes remain however unknown, because of the lack of long-term data sets on oceanic physical and biological parameters during that period , . The links between demographic, ecological and environmental variables remain therefore elusive.
In a first methodological step, we investigated short-term (contemporary) isotopic variations of penguin feathers and showed for the first time concurrent variations in consumer δ13C values and surface Chl a concentration, a proxy of marine primary productivity. In a second exploratory step, historic changes in penguin isotopic niche were investigated and the relationship relating penguin δ13C values to ecosystem productivity used to depict long-term trends in the pelagic ecosystem of the southern Indian Ocean.