Date Published: October 8, 2018
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Author(s): Ka Chun Chong, Pei Hu, Steven Lau, Katherine Min Jia, Wenjia Liang, Maggie Haitian Wang, Benny Chung Ying Zee, Riyang Sun, Huizhen Zheng, Martyn Kirk.
Despite several immunization efforts, China saw a resurgence of measles in 2012. Monitoring of transmissions of individuals from different age groups could offer information that would be valuable for planning adequate disease control strategies. We compared the age-specific effective reproductive numbers (R) of measles during 2009–2016 in Guangdong, China.
We estimated the age-specific R values for 7 age groups: 0–8 months, 9–18 months, 19 months to 6 years, 7–15 years, 16–25 years, 26–45 years, and ≥46 years adapting the contact matrix of China. The daily numbers of laboratory and clinically confirmed cases reported to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong were used.
The peak R values of the entire population were above unity from 2012 to 2016, indicating the persistence of measles in the population. In general, children aged 0–6 years and adults aged 26–45 years had larger values of R when comparing with other age groups after 2012. While the peaks of R values for children aged 0–6 years dropped steadily after 2013, the peaks of R values for adults aged 26–45 years kept at a high range every year.
Although the provincial supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) conducted in 2009 and 2010 were able to reduce the transmissions from 2009 to 2011, larger values of R for children aged 0–6 years were observed after 2012, indicating that the benefits of the SIAs were short-lived. In addition, the transmissions from adults aged between 26 and 45 years increased over time. Disease control strategies should target children and adult groups that carry high potential for measles transmission.
Measles is a highly contagious acute viral disease. Throughout the world, and most countries have set goals for its elimination. In 1978, the national Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in China started to implement a standard schedule for the routine administration of one dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children between 8 and 24 months of age. Subsequently, the mean annual measles incidence decreased from 355 per 100,000 in 1970–1979 to 53 per 100,000 in 1980–1989 . In 1986, a two-dose routine measles immunization program was implemented for children aged between 8 months and 7 years. The age schedule for the second dose of MCV (MCV2) was shifted to 18–24 months in 2005. During 2000–2009, the number of measles cases showed a remarkable decrease but remained around 6.8 per 100,000 on average . In 2006, the government of China set a goal to eliminate measles by 2012, for which purpose a series of programs was implemented, including strengthening routine immunization surveillance, supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), and case-based surveillance . An SIA is defined as the administration of a supplementary dose of a vaccine to a specific age population in a certain area during a short period, regardless of the recipients’ previous vaccination histories. SIAs enhance routine immunization programs, including catch-up campaigns, follow-up campaigns, and outbreak-response immunization. The estimated coverage rate of routine immunization with MCV1 increased from 80.4% in 2000 to 91.1% in 2009, whereas the estimated coverage rate for MCV2 was <80% before 2005 and 84.3% in 2009 . In September 2010, China conducted a synchronized, nationwide SIA that targeted children aged 8 months to 14 years, covering 102 million children with a reported coverage rate of 97.5% [1–3]. Although the annual measles incidence had dropped to 0.46 per 100,000 in 2012, it resurged to more than 1.96 per 100,000 in 2013 . Despite the implementation of two-dose routine vaccines since 2005, frequent outbreaks have occurred over the past years [4–6]. Fig 2 presents the estimated age-specific effective reproductive numbers. In general, the peak R values of the entire population were 1.16 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.30), 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.11), 1.24 (95% CI: 1.19 to 1.31), 1.23 (95% CI: 1.15 to 1.29), and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.31) from 2012 to 2016 respectively, indicating the persistence of measles in the population. Across all age groups, the R values increased greatly from 2009–2011 to 2012–2016, particularly for those of children under 7 years old (the first 3 age groups) and adults aged between 26 and 45 years. Monitoring the age specificity of measles transmissions could provide information that would be valuable to officials who seek to develop adequate disease control strategies. For example, it could help to select appropriate age groups for supplementary vaccination. In this study, we compared the age-specific R of measles infections between different age groups, using laboratory and clinically confirmed data from 2009 to 2016 for Guangdong Province. According to the results, measles transmissions varied across most age groups before and after 2012 and the large values of R from the entire population indicated a persistence of measles in the population from 2012 to 2016. In general, children aged 0–6 years and adults aged 26–45 years had higher contributions in measles transmissions when comparing with other age groups after 2012. After 2013, while the peaks of R values for children aged 0–6 years dropped steadily by years, the peaks of R values for adults aged 26–45 years remained unchanged and kept at a high range every year, demonstrating the highest contributions in measles transmissions. The findings suggest that disease control strategies should target children and adult groups that carry a high potential for measles transmission. In summary, we compared the age specificity in measles transmissions from 2009 to 2016 in Guangdong Province. Although the provincial SIAs conducted in 2009 and 2010 were able to reduce the transmission rates from 2009 to 2011, larger effective reproductive numbers for children aged 0–6 years were observed after 2012, which indicates that the benefits of the SIAs were short-lived. In addition, the transmissions from adults aged between 26 and 45 years increased over time. Based on the findings of the present study, we believe that disease control measures should strategically target those groups that carry a high potential for measles transmissions. Source: http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205339