Research Article: Selection in Reported Epidemiological Risks: An Empirical Assessment

Date Published: March 6, 2007

Publisher: Public Library of Science

Author(s): Fotini K Kavvoura, George Liberopoulos, John P. A Ioannidis, Eduardo L Franco

Abstract: BackgroundEpidemiological studies may be subject to selective reporting, but empirical evidence thereof is limited. We empirically evaluated the extent of selection of significant results and large effect sizes in a large sample of recent articles.Methods and FindingsWe evaluated 389 articles of epidemiological studies that reported, in their respective abstracts, at least one relative risk for a continuous risk factor in contrasts based on median, tertile, quartile, or quintile categorizations. We examined the proportion and correlates of reporting statistically significant and nonsignificant results in the abstract and whether the magnitude of the relative risks presented (coined to be consistently ≥1.00) differs depending on the type of contrast used for the risk factor. In 342 articles (87.9%), ≥1 statistically significant relative risk was reported in the abstract, while only 169 articles (43.4%) reported ≥1 statistically nonsignificant relative risk in the abstract. Reporting of statistically significant results was more common with structured abstracts, and was less common in US-based studies and in cancer outcomes. Among 50 randomly selected articles in which the full text was examined, a median of nine (interquartile range 5–16) statistically significant and six (interquartile range 3–16) statistically nonsignificant relative risks were presented (p = 0.25). Paradoxically, the smallest presented relative risks were based on the contrasts of extreme quintiles; on average, the relative risk magnitude was 1.41-, 1.42-, and 1.36-fold larger in contrasts of extreme quartiles, extreme tertiles, and above-versus-below median values, respectively (p < 0.001).ConclusionsPublished epidemiological investigations almost universally highlight significant associations between risk factors and outcomes. For continuous risk factors, investigators selectively present contrasts between more extreme groups, when relative risks are inherently lower.

Partial Text: Researchers sometimes selectively present their findings, focusing on the more impressive aspects of their work. Focusing on impressive aspects means that researchers may try to show statistically significant results and/or larger effect sizes. Testing for statistical significance is not necessarily a bad thing, even though the process has been criticized [1]. In theory, it can help keep chance findings out of the literature. However, problems ensue when significance testing is accompanied by selective reporting, and we do not know how many hypotheses have been examined and in how many different ways the data have been analyzed. Some studies with statistically nonsignificant (“negative”) results may remain unpublished (publication bias) [2–4] or may be published with delay compared with statistically significant (“positive”) studies (time-lag bias) [5,6]. Bias may also affect the reporting of results within studies: “positive” outcomes may be reported preferentially over potentially less appealing “negative” analyses, even if this distorts the original analysis plan [7,8]. Emphasis may be given to post-hoc subgroup analyses [9] or to dubious adjustments [10,11] that claim statistical significance [11].

Epidemiological investigations almost universally highlight significant associations between risk factors and outcomes. The vast majority of the 389 articles that we analyzed reported some significant results. Less than half of these articles presented at least one nonsignificant relative risk in their respective abstracts. This pattern suggests that there is a strong predilection for highlighting “positive” results and avoiding “negative” results. The preponderance of significant findings was less prominent in the full texts of these articles. However, even in the full texts, an article reported, on average, at least as many significant relative risks as nonsignificant ones, and sometimes reported a greater number. Despite some variability depending on country, tested risk factor, and outcome, most important fields of epidemiological investigation seem to have little room for “negative” findings.



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.