Date Published: January 29, 2019
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Author(s): Lucas P. Griffin, Curtice R. Griffin, John T. Finn, Robert L. Prescott, Mark Faherty, Brett M. Still, Andy J. Danylchuk, Mariana M. P. B. Fuentes.
Since the 1970s, the magnitude of turtle cold-stun strandings have increased dramatically within the northwestern Atlantic. Here, we examine oceanic, atmospheric, and biological factors that may affect the increasing trend of cold-stunned Kemp’s ridleys in Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, United States of America. Using machine learning and Bayesian inference modeling techniques, we demonstrate higher cold-stunning years occur when the Gulf of Maine has warmer sea surface temperatures in late October through early November. Surprisingly, hatchling numbers in Mexico, a proxy for population abundance, was not identified as an important factor. Further, using our Bayesian count model and forecasted sea surface temperature projections, we predict more than 2,300 Kemp’s ridley turtles may cold-stun annually by 2031 as sea surface temperatures continue to increase within the Gulf of Maine. We suggest warmer sea surface temperatures may have modified the northerly distribution of Kemp’s ridleys and act as an ecological bridge between the Gulf Stream and nearshore waters. While cold-stunning may currently account for a minor proportion of juvenile mortality, we recommend continuing efforts to rehabilitate cold-stunned individuals to maintain population resiliency for this critically endangered species in the face of a changing climate and continuing anthropogenic threats.
Historically, sea turtle populations experienced wide-spread declines, primarily from by-catch and harvest of adults and eggs . While conservation measures have helped to increase sea turtle populations globally , both fine- and large-scale threats persist for all seven species of sea turtles, including bycatch, harvest, habitat degradation, pollution, tourism, and climate change. Of these, climate change may present the broadest threat for sea turtle conservation [3–5]. Predicted warmer temperatures and sea level rise may decrease hatchling success and available nesting habitats, and skew sex ratios [5,6].
With the wide variation in SSTs both seasonally and between years, we first used the sliding window approach to determine the optimal time window for examining the relationship between SST and cold-stunning events. The optimal climate time windows differed for the six aggregate SST statistics (Fig 2). The earliest time window occurred from late June thru early August for number of days with daily mean SST > 20°C. The optimal time window for three of the SST statistics (mean, maximum, and standard deviation of the daily mean SSTs) occurred from early August thru the first half of October. The third time window occurred from late October thru early November for the minimum of the daily mean SSTs, and from late November thru early December for number of days with daily mean SST < 10°C. Our study indicates that warming SST in the Gulf of Maine are associated with the increasing numbers of Kemp’s ridley cold-stunned in Cape Cod Bay each year. The minimum of daily mean SSTs, alone, measured between late October thru early November, best explained the magnitude of annual Kemp’s ridley cold-stunning events in Cape Cod Bay. However, maximum and mean of daily mean SSTs, both measured between August and early October, were collinear with minimum of daily mean SSTs. Thus, while warmer SSTs in late fall are indicative of higher annual cold-stunning counts, so are warmer SSTs in late summer and early fall. While our Bayesian count model found SST to be the most important variable in explaining the number of cold-stunned Kemp’s ridleys, the model would be improved with a greater understanding of the small and large scale oceanic processes at work, such as eddies, currents, and thermoclines, which all operate on multiple spatial and temporal scales. However, our single covariate likely acts as a proxy for these processes, and our model does appear to explain the observed Kemp’s ridleys cold-stunning trend. Surprisingly, the covariate number of hatchlings was not considered important in our full candidate count model, so we dropped this variable from the final model. Although the Kemp’s ridley nesting population has increased over the years of our analyses, our results suggest the number of hatchlings released is not linked with the magnitude of cold-stunning events in Cape Cod Bay. Potentially, this statistical relationship between strandings and hatchlings was dampened due to variable hatchling survival (based on surface circulation patterns near nesting beaches) and due to the variable probability of turtles moving from the western Gulf of Mexico nesting beaches into the Atlantic . However, the hatchling indices do provide our best insight into the potential connection between population growth and cold stunning events. Cold-stunning of Kemp’s ridleys within Cape Cod Bay has continued to increase over the past 40 years. Our model indicated that years with warmer SSTs in the Gulf of Maine in late summer thru late fall produce higher numbers of cold-stun turtles on an annual basis. This is particularly alarming, considering the Gulf of Maine is predicted to continue to warm at a rapid rate in coming decades . Surprisingly, hatchlings released, a proxy for population abundance, was not identified as important by our Bayesian count model. Our predictions follow the observed trend and predict there may be as many as 2,349 Kemp’s ridley turtles cold-stunned annually in Cape Cod Bay by 2031. Although cold-stunning likely only affects a small proportion of the overall population currently, we argue for the continuation of recovery and rehabilitation efforts to help maintain population resiliency of this critically endangered species. As we continue to observe warming SSTs in the northeast U.S. driven by climate change, managers need to be prepared for increasing numbers of Kemp’s ridley cold-stun strandings to occur. Future studies should 1) determine when Kemp’s ridleys typically immigrate into and emigrate out of coastal waters of the northeastern U.S., and 2) if juvenile Kemp’s ridley turtles migrate back into the Gulf of Mexico to breed as adults. Source: http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211503