Date Published: October 9, 2015
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Author(s): Randee J. Kastner, Christopher M. Stone, Peter Steinmann, Marcel Tanner, Fabrizio Tediosi, Claudia Munoz-Zanzi. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004147
Abstract: BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease for which more than a billion people in 73 countries are thought to be at-risk. At a global level, the efforts against LF are designed as an elimination program. However, current efforts appear to aim for elimination in some but not all endemic areas. With the 2020 goal of elimination looming, we set out to develop plausible scale-up scenarios to reach global elimination and eradication. We predict the duration of mass drug administration (MDA) necessary to reach local elimination for a variety of transmission archetypes using an existing model of LF transmission, estimate the number of treatments required for each scenario, and consider implications of rapid scale-up.MethodologyWe have defined four scenarios that differ in their geographic coverage and rate of scale-up. For each scenario, country-specific simulations and calculations were performed that took into account the pre-intervention transmission intensity, the different vector genera, drug regimen, achieved level of population coverage, previous progress toward elimination, and potential programmatic delays due to mapping, operations, and administration.Principal FindingsOur results indicate that eliminating LF by 2020 is unlikely. If MDA programs are drastically scaled up and expanded, the final round of MDA for LF eradication could be delivered in 2028 after 4,159 million treatments. However, if the current rate of scale-up is maintained, the final round of MDA to eradicate LF may not occur until 2050.Conclusions/SignificanceRapid scale-up of MDA will decrease the amount of time and treatments required to reach LF eradication. It may also propel the program towards success, as the risk of failure is likely to increase with extended program duration.
Partial Text: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) primarily prevalent in poor populations in 73 countries . LF is caused by infection with Wuchereria bancrofti, Brugia malayi, or B. timori transmitted by a variety of mosquito genera . Infection with the filarial nematodes can damage the lymphatic vessels, the main clinical manifestations being lymphedema, hydrocele, and elephantiasis . In addition to disfigurement and disability, people affected by LF face stigma, social adversity, and economic hardship [4–6].
We have defined four hypothetical scenarios that differ in their geographic coverage and rate of scale-up. The global elimination scenario represents the case whereby countries continue with current practices. As such, it serves as the comparator against all other scenarios. The other three scenarios aim at reaching LF eradication through varying levels of MDA scale-up. Key assumptions and differences between the scenarios are outlined in Table 1. The number of years that each endemic country exceeded the minimum effective coverage rate of 65% in previous rounds of MDA, as well as the geographic coverage and rates of scale-up are provided in Table 2 (countries without previous rounds of MDA for LF) and Table 3 (countries that previously carried out MDA for LF). All scenarios were assumed to begin in 2014 and run until the final round of MDA has been distributed in each country under consideration. Though coverage rates above 65% are considered to be the lowest threshold necessary to be effective, the average programmatic coverage for countries that had previously achieved effective coverage was over 80%. Therefore, we presume that prospective MDA will continue to be performed at higher levels, and therefore assume MDA coverage to be fixed at 85%.
Our results indicate that interrupting LF transmission in all countries by 2020 is unlikely, though if MDA is drastically scaled-up and expanded, the final round of MDA to eradicate LF could be carried out by 2028 (eradication III; Fig 1). If scale-up continues at the current rate, as modeled in our global elimination and eradication I scenarios, the last round of MDA will not be given until 2050, largely due to slow scale-up in areas where transmission occurs through Culex spp. The eradication II scenario reaches the last round of MDA by 2032. As this scenario assumes that all countries add 20% of their at-risk populations to MDA annually, the last countries to reach local elimination are those that were delayed due to mapping, and whose vector and treatment combination included Anopheles spp. and ivermectin or Culex spp. and DEC, including: Angola, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Fig 2 provides a visual representation of the impact different intensities of scale-up and expansion have on time to reach local elimination for each country.
As not all LF endemic countries are considered under the global elimination (comparator) scenario, any eradication campaign will require a massive increase in treatments. However, if LF is to be eliminated in all endemic countries, then rapid scale-up as soon as possible will lead to increased savings—both in terms of time and treatments. Accelerated MDA may also propel the program towards success, as the risk of failure (due to lapses in funding, donor fatigue, or occurrence of calamitous events) potentially increases with extended program duration . It is conceivable that a decrease in program duration may also decrease the likelihood of drug resistance evolution .